An American Bibi?

I usually leave American politics to Americans, on the theory that they know more about it. But as an Israeli, I feel uniquely qualified to comment on one of the two main concerns raised about presidential candidate Ted Cruz, because I’ve spent the last seven years living under a leader who shares the same flaw: an astonishing talent for making absolutely everyone who works with him loathe him. This flaw has undoubtedly made Benjamin Netanyahu a less effective prime minister than he could have been. Yet on balance, he has been quite successful.

The fact that “King Bibi” is widely loathed in Israel – and not just by left-wingers – may surprise many Americans. But Israeli politics is littered with former senior aides and colleagues of Netanyahu who abandoned his Likud party because they couldn’t stand working with him. Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, once Likud’s number two, quit because he loathed Netanyahu and now heads his own party, Kulanu. Education Minister Naftali Bennett, once a senior aide to Netanyahu, similarly left in disgust and now heads his own party, Jewish Home. Jewish Home’s number two, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, is another former senior Netanyahu aide who quit in disgust, as is former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who now heads his own party, Yisrael Beiteinu. Former Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar, also once Likud’s number two, quit in disgust and is now taking a “time-out” from politics. It’s hard to think of any other Israeli party with a comparable attrition rate among its most talented people, and it’s no surprise that dumping Bibi is reportedly a top goal for many politicians even within the governing coalition.

Nor is Netanyahu much more popular among his own voters. In a fascinating report in January, journalist Amit Segal described how Likud pulled off its stunning upset victory in last year’s election. The campaign began with focus groups among likely Likud voters in which person after person declared: We’re not voting Bibi again; we’re sick of him. Campaign strategists concluded that only one thing could persuade these voters to nevertheless vote Netanyahu – fear that not doing so would bring the left to power. The campaign successfully played on this fear, and in the end, Likud voters turned out for Bibi en masse.

There’s a reason why Netanyahu has disappointed so many voters: Pushing through major change, which many voters want in the socioeconomic sphere, requires cooperation from many other people, and especially legislators. Thus someone with a gift for alienating everyone he works with finds effecting major change very difficult.

Indeed, it’s no accident that Netanyahu made his most far-reaching reforms not as premier, but as finance minister under Ariel Sharon. Those reforms are widely credited with giving Israel several years of five percent growth and enabling it to weather the global financial crisis of 2008-09 with little damage. But as finance minister, Netanyahu only had to draft them; Sharon, a superb politician, took responsibility for actually pushing them through the Knesset. Since becoming prime minister, in contrast, Netanyahu hasn’t managed to enact any of his boldest ideas.

But here is what he has managed to do, despite his flaws: He’s kept Israel safe in a very dangerous region. Palestinian terror, even with the current stabbing intifada, has claimed far fewer victims than under most of his predecessors. Syria’s civil war, which has destabilized all its other neighbors, hasn’t touched Israel, in part thanks to quiet agreements with more moderate rebel groups that Israel will provide humanitarian aid, including hospital treatment for wounded Syrians, as long as they keep Islamist fanatics away from Israel’s border. Security cooperation with Egypt has reached an all-time high, as have under-the-table relations with other Arab states in the face of two common enemies – Iran and radical Sunni groups like Islamic State. Israel has survived seven years of a hostile U.S. president without being forced into any territorial concessions that would endanger its security.

Compare that to his predecessors’ record and it’s easy to see why Israelis, despite loathing Netanyahu, prefer his cautious stewardship to the left’s adventurism. As I’ve explained before in greater detail, Yitzhak Rabin’s Oslo Accord, Ehud Barak’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon and negotiations with Yasser Arafat, and Sharon’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza all significantly worsened Israel’s security situation and led to an upsurge in Israeli casualties. Netanyahu, by contrast, has perpetrated no major disasters; if he hasn’t dramatically improved Israelis’ lives, he has at least refrained from making them worse.

And even excluding security issues, where he shines, his record on other issues may not be stellar, but it certainly isn’t bad. The economy has grown modestly but steadily, and unemployment has remained at record lows despite a massive increase in labor force participation rates. There have been no dramatic reforms, but many smaller ones. Diplomatic relations with some traditional allies, like Germany, have soured, but relations with other countries have improved markedly, both in Europe (where several smaller states, including former hostiles like Greece and Cyprus, have surprisingly become Israel’s closest European allies) and in Asia, where relations with India, China and Japan have blossomed.

So if Americans want a revolution, Cruz probably can’t deliver; his lack of emotional intelligence virtually precludes major reforms. But as Netanyahu has proven, someone with terrible interpersonal skills can nevertheless do a pretty good job of steering the ship of state – keeping the country safe, avoiding major disasters and making modest improvements along the way. To my mind, that sounds infinitely better than what America’s had for the last seven years, or what it’s likely to get from either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Clearly, all this is moot if Cruz can’t overcome his other main problem: He has yet to prove he can match Bibi’s talent for winning elections. But based on the Bibi parallel, I don’t think Americans need to worry about how Cruz would do if he actually won the White House. As most Israelis could tell them, there are plenty of worse traits in a chief executive than an inability to get along with other people.

Originally published in the Jewish Press on March 23, 2016